In the 2023–24 NBA Season, two rookies (Victor Wembenyama and Chet Holmgren) are in the top 5 of blocks per game, and are performing at a high level. Is this a trend or an outlier?

Are overall blocks trending up or down?

The top 5 players have been trending toward fewer blocks per game for nearly two decades, as 3-point shooting becomes more common and the traditional center is all but extinct.

In 2024 (and to an extent, 2023), the trend reversed drastically.

Have Rookies led the league in the past?

The idea of a rookie ranking in the top 5 of blocks is not completely foreign. Mitchell Robinson accomplished the feat in 2018–19. Clearly this is not a common occurrence.

But the fact that three rookies over two seasons have done so (Victor, Chet, and Walker Kessel), is astounding. Here are phenomenal rookies during this time frame that didn’t make the cut:

Dwight Howard, Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, Brook Lopez, Giannis, Myles Turner, and many others

What about the Age of Blocks Leaders?

However, the Median Age and the Median Seasons in the League for Blocks per Game Leaders has steadily declined over the last two decades. So while having three players under the age of 23 is definitely unique, the idea of young players leading blocks is not.

Conclusions and Possibilities

There are a number of reasons why these phenomena could occur. Here are some ideas:

1. Teams draft to close the gap in their weaknesses and gain advantage over other teams. Because the “classic center” is no longer a core roster member, blocks are dominated by young athletic big men with a massive wingspan.

2. Due to the rise in three pointers, the number of opportunities for blocks in the paint have dwindled. It has taken years of learning and coaching to find talent that has the ability to block three pointers without allowing open dunks.

3. Analytics has finally caught up to defense. Player tracking data has been around for 10 years and the focus of this data has been to optimize offense, which has led to more threes, and a more position-less league. The last 3–4 years has likely had an increase in using data to improve defense, leading to better defensive schemes aligned for these new offenses.

What business lessons can be learned from this?

Use Data to improve your situation

Hire (either employees or suppliers) to close the gap in your biggest weaknesses

To stand out amongst your peers, develop skills that others are ignoring

Don’t sleep on young talent

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Data source: espn.com/nba/stats